Beyond Red & Blue

Northern Virginia political narrative not so predictable

Politico's Patrick Ottenhoff is a little premature in analyzing a Republican victory in the Virginia governor's race (Election Day isn't over yet), but his cautionary note about geographic trends is a good one:

[Republican Bob] McDonnell’s victory in Loudoun and in neighboring Prince William County will come as a surprise to many armchair pundits, who thought that all of Northern Virginia had became solidly blue. Many die-hard Democrats will blame Creigh Deeds’s lifeless campaign and the political environment.

But the truth is that Northern Virginia is often taken for granted as a powerful Democratic bloc. To be sure, Fairfax County has become solidly blue, but Loudoun and Prince William counties are more accurately full of independents who just happen to be supporting Democrats recently.

I'm fascinated by the process by which a solid Republican county becomes solidly Democratic (and vice versa), and I suspect that Northern Virginia may yet become as reliably blue as Massachusetts. But these trends almost never play out as a purely linear plotline.

I'm IN Tucson but not OF Tucson, says state rep.

The Arizona Daily Star has an item on a state representative from Tucson who objects to having that city associated with his name, as in the ID "state Rep. Frank Antenori, R-Tucson." (Hat tip to Alan Ehrenhalt at The Ballot Box.)

Antenori prefers the more generic “Southern Arizona,” because he rightly points out that his legislative district, No. 30, reaches far past the city limits.

But nevertheless, Antenori does live in Tucson, in East side Mesquite Ranch, to be exact. “I don’t represent Tucson as a whole,” said Antenori. “I live in Tucson, but on the very edge of it — 400 feet from the border.”

Not that Antenori's attitude is so surprising. Expressing disdain toward big cities has long been considered a prerequisite to winning suburban votes. This is even true in densely populated Massachusetts. See, for example, this account by Jon Keller of a 2001 special election in a district that was mostly suburban but also included a big chunk of Boston:

In a mass mailing and print ad campaign targeted at suburban voters during the final days before the special primary preceding the election, [state Sen. Brian] Joyce argued for changes in a state formula for distributing public-school aid that favored Boston at the expense of the suburbs. "THEY WANT TO KEEP TAKING OUR MONEY AND GIVING IT TO THEIR NEIGHBORHOODS!" screamed the ad. "DON'T LET THEM DO IT!" His opponents, Joyce wrote - both Boston city councillors - opposed a change to the education funding formula that would benefit suburban schools and taxpayers.