Beyond Red & Blue

Gay marriage was roadkill on I-95 in Maine

Matthew Gagnon has put together some cool maps showing the difference between the last gay-rights victory in Maine (when an anti-discrimination law was upheld in 2005) and last week's defeat for gay marriage. The dark-brown communities on this map are places that switched from "pro" to "anti" gay. (I know it's not that simple, but I agree with Gagnon that these cities and towns made the difference in the outcome.) The red line represents Interstate 95.

As Gagnon notes, "The people who were receptive to voting for gay rights in 2005, and thus open to a good argument, but voted against gay marriage in 2009 were middle class suburbanites in the small to medium sized satellite towns that were within striking distance of larger cities and transportation corridors." It's great analysis; go read the whole thing.

Maine results

More complete results from the gay marriage vote are here, analyzed by Matthew Gagnon of the Bangor Daily News. While the marriage equality forces were stronger in urban areas, winning overwhelmingly in Portland and in 19 of the state's 30 largest cities, Gagnon notes that the campaign to repeal gay marriage won in several middle-class cities in "middle Maine," tipping the balance to the conservative side.

Does Portland, Maine, deserve to be boycotted?

Here's another gay data point from yesterday's election. In Kalamazoo, Michigan, voters passed a law guaranteeing equal rights for gays and lesbians in employment and housing by a 62-38 margin. (Hat tip: Joe My God.) Hooray and all that.

On the same day, voters in Portland, Maine, upheld a law guaranteeing marriage equality -- a much more progressive step -- by a 74-26 margin.

A Corzine warning for Patrick?

According to State House News Service (subscription required), Gov. Deval Patrick was on the radio this morning saying there is "no comparison" between yesterday's New Jersey/Virginia gubernatorial elections (both won by Republicans) and his own re-election effort next year. "A year is a long time in politics," he added.

He's right, but the New Jersey result can't be comforting, especially if Patrick and advisers are nursing hopes of winning with less than a majority in a three-candidate race. In the closing weeks of the campaign, many analysts suggested that unpopular Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine could win with far less than 50 percent of the vote, thanks to independent candidate Chris Daggett pulling anti-Corzine votes away from Republican nominee Chris Christie.

In the end Daggett, who had polled as high as 20 percent, got only 5.8 percent of the vote, and Christie unseated Corzine, 48.8 percent to 44.5 percent. My hunch is that anti-Corzine independents and Republicans broke for Christie in the final days of the campaign, leaving Daggett with Democrats who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Corzine but would never vote for a Republican.

So I'm updating my prediction from July: Patrick needs to get very close to 50 percent next fall in order to be re-elected. Gambling that the Republican nominee (presumably Charlie Baker) and independent Tim Cahill will split the anti-incumbent vote and allow Patrick to glide in with, say, 44.5 percent, would be a poor strategy for the governor's campaign.  

Cross-posted at CW Unbound.

Gay marriage wins 5 of 10 biggest cities in Maine

UPDATE: More complete numbers are here, showing an even split in the Top 10, with the No vote winning in Portland, Bangor, South Portland, Brunswick, and Scarborough. The Yes side (against gay marriage) prevailed in Lewiston, Auburn, Biddeford, Sanford, and Augusta.

Yesterday's repeal of a law allowing same-sex marriage in Maine was largely an urban vs. rural affair. According to almost-complete results on the Bangor Daily News website, the "No on 1" forces easily prevailed in six of the state's eight biggest communities. The biggest cities won by the campaign against gay marriage were Lewiston and Auburn, economically depressed blue-collar areas far from the coast. The "Yes on 1" side swept smaller towns, especially in the northern half of the state. Presque Isle, where voters went against gay marriage by 2-to-1, is in Aroostook County, which forms the state's northern border with Canada.

Here are the winning percentages in the 10 biggest communities (see below)

1. Portland: No, 74%
2. Lewiston: Yes, 59%
3. Bangor: No, 54%
4. South Portland: No, 64%
5. Auburn: Yes, 54%
6. Saco: No, 54%
7. Westbrook: No, 55%
8. Waterville: No, 54%
9. Presque Isle: Yes, 67%
10. Brewer: Yes, 58%

UPDATE: More evidence of an urban/rural divide: gay candidates prospered yesterday in Chapel Hill, Detroit, and Houston. And Brockton, Mass.

Northern Virginia political narrative not so predictable

Politico's Patrick Ottenhoff is a little premature in analyzing a Republican victory in the Virginia governor's race (Election Day isn't over yet), but his cautionary note about geographic trends is a good one:

[Republican Bob] McDonnell’s victory in Loudoun and in neighboring Prince William County will come as a surprise to many armchair pundits, who thought that all of Northern Virginia had became solidly blue. Many die-hard Democrats will blame Creigh Deeds’s lifeless campaign and the political environment.

But the truth is that Northern Virginia is often taken for granted as a powerful Democratic bloc. To be sure, Fairfax County has become solidly blue, but Loudoun and Prince William counties are more accurately full of independents who just happen to be supporting Democrats recently.

I'm fascinated by the process by which a solid Republican county becomes solidly Democratic (and vice versa), and I suspect that Northern Virginia may yet become as reliably blue as Massachusetts. But these trends almost never play out as a purely linear plotline.

The zero-vote precinct

The Boston Globe's Andrew Ryan reports on a "phantom precinct" in Boston's Harbor Islands where turnout expectations are always low:

“It’s the lonely machine,’’ said Loretta Paulding, the election warden in charge of Ward 1, Precinct 15, for the last 15 years. “But I do have to keep an eye on it. And at the end of the night, I still have to tally up zero, zero, zero.’’