Update: How the 10 Regions of American Politics voted on Tuesday

Preliminary results from the 10 Regions of American Politics are below, with more detailed data to come. Barack Obama has won six regions, taking South Coast away from the Republican column. That means he's won the five most urbanized regions (see earlier post), four of them by margins near or above 20 points, plus he hung on to the Democratic Party's last remaining region with a substantial number of "small town" voters (Chippewa).

The shift of Mega-Chicago and El Norte, which are now almost as Democratic as the Northeast Corridor and Upper Coasts, is significant. Mega-Chicago voted for Gerald Ford in 1976 and George H.W. Bush in 1988, and El Norte was one of Ronald Reagan's strongest regions in the 1980s. The GOP can't afford wipeouts in all four regions if it is to be competitive in 2012.

Northeast Corridor: 65% Obama, D margin of 30 points, up from 21 points in 2004.

Upper Coasts: 65% Obama, D margin of 30 points, up from 22 points.

Mega-Chicago: 61% Obama, D margin of 22 points, up from 9 points.

El Norte: 59% Obama, D margin of 18 points, up from 3 points.

Chippewa: 55% Obama, D margin of 10 points, up from 3 points.

South Coast: 52% Obama, D margin of 4 points, reversal from a loss by 6 points.

Frontier: 53% McCain, R margin of 6 points, down from 18 points.

Cumberland: 55% McCain, R margin of 10 points, down from 20 points.

Southern Inland: 56% McCain, R margin of 12 points, down from 16 points.

Comanche: 60% McCain, R margin of 20 points, down from 27 points.

Comments

[Chris VanHaight]

The shifts in this election are not surprising. I believe job losses have been the worst in Chippewa (with Mega-Chicago not doing much better), while the housing crisis has been terrible in the South Coast area (think boom to bust Florida) and El Norte (think boom to bust Las Vegas). The question is whether this election simply reflects the tough economic situation (hopefully a temporary reality), or do they signal a more permanent political realignment. Another piece of the puzzle that certainly seems to have long-term effects is the shift of Hispanic voters towards the Democrats, particularly in El Norte. Proposition 187 was the gift that keeps on giving for the Democrats.

[Rachel Findley]

The counties that showed a red shift, voting more Republican in 2008 than in 2004, make an arc through the Appalachians through the Ozarks (plus parts of the Gulf Coast), including parts of Cumberland, Southern Inland, and Comanche. See http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html . These counties match up with areas of highest "American" or "Scotch-Irish" ancestry. They shifted toward McCain-Palin in regions that became less Republican, while still being carried by the Republican ticket. Any thoughts?

[Robert David Sullivan]

Well, the obvious implication is that those areas have the most resistance to the idea of a black president. That may not be the entire explanation, however. This arc from the Appalachians to the Ozark is probably the most rural part of the country (most people in the West live in big cities, even if those cities are surrounded by desert), and the Republican Party has increasingly identified itself as the "small town" party -- which may be a winning strategy in Appalachia even as it's a disaster on the national level.

[Nate Cohn]

If you look at this belt of counties, these counties used to be the key to the New Deal coalition.

Every democrat to win the presidency, until Obama, did so by collecting states and counties along this belt. This belt has trended very strongly towards the GOP since 1968, but especially during this decade; even Dukakis outperformed Kerry and Gore here, and they didn't do much better than Mondale here, if at all.

These counties are still winnable for democrats, as proven by state wide races, and Hillary's dominant performance here during the primaries. Intriguingly, they have behaved very consistently together for the last 60 years.

I'm planning on writing about this over the next month. It's a pattern that I had noticed before the primary season, and I think these counties deserve more attention.