State of the Race: August 19

Waiting for the running-mate picks to change the dynamics of the presidential election (maybe), I checked in at FiveThirtyEight.com to see where the state-by-state polls are right now. Using their poll averages (not their projections), I came up with a very shaky 296-242 Electroral College win for Barack Obama -- on the basis of him winning all of John Kerry's states, plus Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio. If turnout matched that of 2004 in each state, and currently undecided voters broke 50-50 (neither of which will be true), Obama would win by 46 percent to 43 percent in the popular vote and get a raw-vote margin of about 3.5 million. Again, a shaky lead for the Democrat as of mid-August.

Looking at individual states, Obama is polling at least five points behind John Kerry's 2004 showing in Massachusetts and New York (which he'll win anyway), and in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia (which he never had much chance of carrying). He's at least three points behind in the swing states of Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio.

John McCain is a bit farther back from his party's 2004 mark. He's polling at least 15 points behind George W. Bush in Idaho, North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming, but only North Dakota is considered remotely winnable for Obama. He's at least 10 points behind in Indiana and Montana, both historically Republican states that have been unexpectedly close in the polls.

See all the ephemeral data below, or download the Excel spreadsheet: Download StateoftheraceAug19.xls (39.0K)

Comments

[Peter Porcupine]

Mr. Sullivan - I want to make a prediction now.

I think that Deval Patrick speaking at the DNC convention is all Mass. needed to put McCain over the top.

It is a reminder to those here, and to a lesser degree the other NE states, of how a similar campaign of much speech and little substance worked out here in Mass. (How's that property tax relief coming?).

Combine McCain's overall popularity with the fact that Obama didn't win Mass. in the primary and the impact of Q. 1 in November - and you MIGHT want to think twice before casually assigning Mass. to Obama...

[Robert David Sullivan]

McCain could indeed win Massachusetts, but I can't imagine any scenario where he'd win Massachusetts without also carrying Connecticut, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. And in that case, McCain will win by enough that no individual state matters.

And all the networks will have spent money on cool Electoral Collage graphics for nothing...

[Chris VanHaight]

Surpise, surprise, Ohio may very well determine another election. As someone who lived there a few years, I can tell you that pocketbook issues are key (another no-brainer). Obama needs to cut out the happy talk and explain just how he is going to turn the economy around (and link McCain to the failed policies of the past) if he is going to pull this off. Of course, such arguments would also help shore up support in Michigan and help in Indiana as well.