The Super Tuesday polls are getting way beyond any possible explanation. Survey USA, which yesterday gave Hillary Clinton a 24-point lead in Massachusetts, today gives Barack Obama a four-point lead in Connecticut. Can these two neighboring states be that far apart?
According to Survey USA's Connecticut poll, Clinton leads among women by a 53-39 margin (not as much as the 65-26 margin in Massachusetts), while Obama is ahead among men 59-33 (the two were tied at 44 percent each in Massachusetts). Further, there is a large age gap in Connecticut, with Obama far stronger among younger voters, something that doesn't exist in the Massachusetts poll.
One technical difference between Massachusetts and Connecticut is that independents are not allowed to vote in the latter state's Democratic primary, so I suppose it's possible that Clinton's lead in Massachusetts is due to a large bloc of younger women who are independents... but that seems pretty far-fetched. (Besides, unenrolled voters in Connecticut have until Monday to register in one of the major parties, so turnout seems impossible to predict with precision.)
By Tuesday, there should be polls with wildly contradictory findings in each of the states voting that day.
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