The above map shows what a Republican victory looks like in the 5th District of Massachusetts, where voters will be choosing between Democrat Niki Tsongas and Republican Jim Ogonowski in a special election tomorrow. Mitt Romney who easily carried the district in 2002, winning all but four communities. (Note: The 5th District does not include a small portion of Wayland, but the votes involved would not change the overall results shown in these maps.)
Next we see the results of the governor's race last year. The 5th was one of Democrat Deval Patrick's two or three weakest congressional districts, but he still won a majority against the combined totals of Repubican Kerry Healey and conservative independent Christy Mihos.
Finally, we see where the greatest changes occurred between the 2002 and 2006 races. If Ogonowski is to pull off an upset in the 5th, he needs to get out the presumably more conservative voters who were cool toward Patrick in Dracut, Billerica, Lowell, and Tewksbury (while hoping that loyal Democrats in those communities stay home) or get back some of the Romney votes that swung toward Patrick in the more moderate towns of Sudbury, Wayland, Carlisle, Acton, and Concord.
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